Nigeria: the crazy figure that shows the impact of the Dangote refinery

Nigeria appears to be undergoing a major turning point in its energy history. In the first quarter of 2026, the country’s gasoline import bill fell to 87.40 billion naira, down from 2.27 trillion naira during the same period in 2025. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, this decrease represents a year-on-year decline of 96.15%.

The contraction is even more spectacular when compared quarter-on-quarter. In the fourth quarter of 2025, ordinary petrol imports amounted to 3.54 trillion naira. Three months later, they accounted for only 87.40 billion naira, a drop of 97.53%. In absolute terms, Nigeria spent 2.18 trillion naira less than in the first quarter of 2025 and 3.45 trillion naira less than in the previous quarter.

This decline marks a break in the structure of Nigerian imports. Gasoline, known as Premium Motor Spirit in the country, had long been one of the main imported products, despite Nigeria’s status among Africa’s major crude oil producers. In the fourth quarter of 2025, it was even the top imported product in the country, with 3.54 trillion naira, accounting for 20.52% of total imports.

The Dangote Refinery Changes the Balance

The main explanation for this drop lies in the rise of local refining. The Dangote refinery, located in the Lekki area near Lagos, has profoundly changed Nigeria’s fuel supply flows. Designed to process 650,000 barrels per day, it is considered the largest refinery in Africa and one of the largest in the world.

Gradually entering production from 2024, the facility has begun to significantly impact the Nigerian fuel market. Its production of gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel has helped reduce the country’s dependence on shipments from Europe, the Gulf, or other regional platforms.

The change is particularly symbolic as Nigeria has lived for several decades with an energy paradox. The country exported crude oil but imported massive amounts of refined products due to insufficient local capacities. Public refineries, which have long underperformed, failed to meet domestic demand. This dependence affected foreign exchange reserves, the stability of the naira, and the national energy bill.

With Dangote, part of this logic is being reversed. Locally produced gasoline is gradually replacing imports. In February 2026, Nigerian authorities even suspended the issuance of fuel import licenses, believing that local production sufficiently covered market needs.

A Direct Impact on the Trade Balance

The decrease in gasoline imports contributed to the improvement of Nigeria’s trade balance in the first quarter of 2026. During this period, the country recorded a trade surplus of 7.55 trillion naira. Exports amounted to 21.17 trillion naira, compared to 13.62 trillion naira for imports.

The reduction in the oil import bill has played a central role in this enhancement. Total imports decreased by 18.17% compared to the first quarter of 2025 and by 21.05% compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. At the same time, exports increased, supported by revenues from crude oil and other petroleum products.

The transformation is visible in the composition of imports. Gasoline now accounts for only 0.64% of Nigeria’s total imports in the first quarter of 2026, down from 13.64% a year earlier and 20.52% in the previous quarter. It has even dropped out of the top 10 most imported products in the country.

This shift shows that Nigeria is not just cutting a line of expenditure. It is changing the very structure of its foreign trade. Fewer gasoline imports mean less pressure on foreign exchange, reduced dependence on international refined product markets, and more value added retained within the national territory.

An Incomplete Transformation

However, the shift should be qualified. While gasoline imports have collapsed, energy products continue to weigh heavily in Nigeria’s trade exchanges. Fuel and lubricant imports reached 2.51 trillion naira in the first quarter of 2026. They therefore remain a significant source of pressure on the external balance.

The internal structure of these imports has also changed. Refined products have significantly decreased, but primary fuels have increased. This indicates that the drop in gasoline imports does not signify a complete exit from energy dependence. It rather reflects a shift in needs, with the rise of local refining that also requires regular supplies of crude oil and inputs.

The success of this model will therefore depend on Nigeria’s ability to maintain stable, competitive, and sufficient local production. The Dangote refinery has made several important strides, but it remains exposed to technical constraints, crude supply issues, logistical tensions, and fluctuations in global prices.

Recent information has also shown that the refinery’s gasoline production unit experienced a temporary capacity reduction since late May 2026, due to difficulties related to the supply of lighter crude and technical problems. Even if a return to full capacity was expected by mid-June, this episode reminds us that energy security does not solely rely on the size of an infrastructure but also on its operational regularity.

The Price of Fuel Remains a Social Issue

The decrease in imports does not automatically translate into lower prices at the pump. In Nigeria, fuel prices remain sensitive to international oil prices, exchange rates, refining costs, transportation, and distributors’ margins.

The suspension of imports may protect local refiners, but it can also reduce competition if not accompanied by effective regulation. Authorities must find a delicate balance: supporting national production without creating an excessive dependency on a single industrial player.

This issue is even more sensitive as fuel remains a strategic product in the Nigerian economy. It influences transportation costs, food prices, small business activities, and household budgets. In a country where electricity remains unstable in several regions, many households and businesses still rely on generators running on gasoline or diesel.

The success of the transition to local refining will thus be judged not only by foreign trade statistics but also by its concrete effects on consumers. If local production reduces the import bill without stabilizing prices, the political and social benefits could remain limited.

An Industrial Turning Point for Nigeria

Despite these reservations, the first quarter of 2026 marks an important milestone. For the first time in a long while, Nigeria seems able to significantly reduce one of its major economic contradictions: exporting crude while massively importing gasoline.

The Dangote refinery is not just transforming the Nigerian market. It is also beginning to reshape energy flows in West Africa and beyond. Shipments of Nigerian refined products are now being sent to other African countries, as well as to more distant markets. This evolution could make Nigeria a regional supplier of refined fuels, provided that production is sustainable and that logistical infrastructures keep pace.

For Abuja, the challenge goes beyond merely reducing imports. It is about building a more integrated oil value chain, retaining more revenue within the national economy, reducing pressure on the naira, and strengthening the country’s energy autonomy.

The 96.15% drop in the gasoline import bill in the first quarter of 2026 thus sends a strong signal. It shows that Nigeria can change course when a local industrial capacity becomes genuinely operational. But to turn this signal into a sustainable break, the country must secure refinery supplies, maintain product quality, protect consumers, and ensure that the new model does not replace external dependency with poorly regulated internal dependency.