In Germany, AfD leads as Merz’s CDU hits lowest point since 1949

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to lead in the regional elections held on Sunday, September 20, 2026, in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, located in the northeast of the country. ARD’s projections credit the AfD with approximately 37% of the vote, ahead of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) at 35.5%, while Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU falls to around 5.5%.

For the CDU, this setback is historic. A score close to 5.5% would represent its worst result in a regional election since the establishment of the Federal Republic of Germany in 1949. Friedrich Merz described the outcome as a “disaster,” while asserting his intention to continue with his program of economic and social reforms.

The AfD has made significant gains compared to the 2021 regional election, where it secured 16.7%. Despite this leading position, the party is not expected to automatically take the helm of the regional government, as the main other parties continue to rule out any coalition with it.

The official counting was still ongoing on Sunday evening, and the figures remained provisional. The electoral authority of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern was still publishing interim results in the evening, while projections from public broadcasters kept the AfD ahead of the SPD.

This result comes two weeks after the AfD’s significant breakthrough in Saxony-Anhalt, where the party had already finished first with nearly 44% of the vote. The succession of these regional elections intensifies the pressure on Friedrich Merz, whose federal coalition is facing considerable unpopularity and criticism over the cost of living and the reforms undertaken.

In Berlin, where another regional election took place on Sunday, Die Linke was projected to lead with around 24.5% of the vote. The CDU followed at about 20%, ahead of the AfD, which was credited with approximately 16%. Merz has called a meeting of his party’s leadership to discuss the political implications of these results.