In accordance with the Constitution, Benin’s new president will be sworn in on May 24, 2026. This means that with less than a year to go until the April 2026 presidential election, President Patrice Talon is entering the final stretch of his second and final term. True to his word, he has reaffirmed that he will not seek a third term. His upcoming departure marks the beginning of a politically uncertain period—marked by a mixed record, a tense succession battle, and a legacy to defend.
Since his election in 2016, Patrice Talon has imposed a style of governance focused on cleaning up public finances, modernizing the economy, and launching major infrastructure projects. Benin has experienced steady growth, with GDP rising from +3% in 2016 to +7.5% in 2024. The country even withstood the COVID-19 pandemic with +3.8% growth in 2020.
This momentum was driven by significant public and private investments in key sectors such as agribusiness, telecom, and infrastructure. The tax-to-GDP ratio increased from 13% to 15.5%, reflecting better revenue mobilization. The fiscal deficit was brought down to 3%, and public debt remains moderate at 53% of GDP.
These efforts led to an upgrade of Benin’s sovereign credit rating by Standard & Poor’s. On the social front, poverty decreased to 36.2%, school canteens were expanded, and health coverage was extended to the most vulnerable. In December 2023, the IMF unlocked $200 million to support social resilience efforts.
Yet behind the numbers lie deep-rooted inequalities. Purchasing power remains fragile, underemployment is high, and regional disparities are growing. The opposition accuses the regime of favoring an economic elite, while most citizens struggle to feel the impact of growth in their daily lives.
Institutional reform or political lockdown?
Talon’s legacy also includes major structural reforms in governance. The 2019 constitutional revision introduced the office of vice president and reinforced term limits. Talon takes pride in having constitutionally blocked the possibility of a third term—a rare stance in West Africa.
However, this rationalization came at a price. The new party charter drastically reduced the number of political parties, leading to the de facto exclusion of opposition groups from the 2019 legislative elections. For the first time since 1990, the National Assembly was entirely made up of pro-Talon deputies.
The creation of the Court for the Repression of Economic Offenses and Terrorism (CRIET) in 2018, intended to speed up anti-corruption efforts, is widely viewed as a political weapon. Several key opposition figures, including Reckya Madougou and Joël Aïvo, were handed heavy prison sentences following trials criticized for lack of fairness.
Another major criticism of Talon’s presidency involves civil liberties. From 2019 to 2021, elections were marked by disqualified candidates, political arrests, and crackdowns on protests. Freedom of expression also suffered, with journalists prosecuted, media outlets suspended, and the Digital Code used to silence dissent.
Benin dropped in Reporters Without Borders’ press freedom index (ranking 121st in 2022), with only a modest recovery in 2024. Organizations such as Amnesty International, Freedom House, and Human Rights Watch continue to denounce violations of civil and political rights.
Talon did, however, enact some positive measures—including the abolition of the death penalty, gender quotas in politics, and the criminalization of gender-based violence—but these are not enough to offset the broader democratic decline.
Pragmatic diplomacy
On the international stage, Talon has adopted a discreet, results-driven diplomatic approach. The restitution of royal treasures by France in 2021, economic partnerships with China, and support from the IMF, World Bank, and U.S. Millennium Challenge Corporation highlight his strategic positioning.
Regionally, Benin has taken a more active role in ECOWAS and UEMOA. In response to rising terrorism in the north, the government has boosted military presence and sought assistance from Rwanda—a rare example of South-South cooperation.
Yet internal scandals—such as the prosecution of former allies accused of plotting a coup—have cast a shadow over the country’s supposed stability. Critics argue that security concerns have been used as a pretext for political repression.
Talon’s administration is also known for its infrastructure boom. Roads, markets, hospitals, stadiums, power plants, and solar parks have changed the face of Benin. The Asphaltage program, the Glo-Djigbé Industrial Zone (GDIZ), and the Route des Pêches are flagship projects of his Government Action Program (PAG).
Still, questions remain about opaque costs, lack of transparency in public tenders, delays, and whether some projects are truly aligned with the population’s priorities. Controversial decisions, like scrapping free dialysis, have also sparked public outrage.
A tense succession process
With one year to go before the April 2026 presidential election, the political landscape appears calm on the surface, but is rife with behind-the-scenes maneuvering. While Talon has repeatedly pledged to step down, he has yet to signal his preferred successor. No clear candidate has emerged within the ruling majority, fueling speculation and quiet rivalries.
This unusual vacuum—no obvious successor from either the ruling camp or the opposition—stems in part from the hyper-centralization of Talon’s leadership. “It illustrates the president’s tight grip on the political game,” says one analyst, pointing out that reforms meant to depersonalize politics have failed to prevent a “crowned heir” scenario.
Talon has made clear he intends to influence the succession to ensure continuity. Several potential candidates are rumored, including Vice President Mariam Chabi Talata, Finance Minister Romuald Wadagni, and others such as Pascal Irénée Koupaki or Abdoulaye Bio Tchané. Yet none has generated a broad consensus.
The former presidential advisor Olivier Boko’s arrest further destabilized Talon’s inner circle. The president has since tightened control, relying on a core group of loyalists in a setup reminiscent of an end-of-reign atmosphere.
On the opposition side, the outlook is equally uncertain. While the party Les Démocrates returned to parliament in 2023 with 28 seats, its leadership remains weakened by exile (Sébastien Ajavon) or imprisonment (Madougou, Aïvo). Boni Yayi, though back in the country, has remained relatively inactive.
The opposition needs a candidate who can unite discontent and appeal beyond its base. Kémi Seba has announced a run, but his radicalism and limited reach in Benin raise doubts about his viability.
Opposition parties must also navigate rules designed under Talon’s administration. Will they secure the endorsements needed to compete? Can they campaign freely? Their presence in parliament is a step forward, but institutional control remains in the hands of regime loyalists.
More than just a new president, the 2026 election will determine the fate of the Talon model. Two paths lie ahead: a controlled transition ensuring policy continuity (a Russian-style Putin-Medvedev scenario, feared by critics), or a return to genuine political competition that reopens democratic space.
The international community will watch closely. Talon’s reputation will hinge on how he manages this final stretch. A transparent, peaceful transfer of power would bolster his legacy. Conversely, any attempt to retain influence behind the scenes—through constitutional tweaks or a shadow presidency—would tarnish it.
With 365 days left, the Talon era is drawing to a close. Whether this “terminus” leads to renewal or retrenchment will define the next chapter of Benin’s democracy.