South Africa: petrol prices could surge by more than 2 rands in October

South African motorists may face a rise of over 2 rands per litre of petrol in October, according to preliminary data from the Central Energy Fund released in mid-September. The projection indicates an increase of approximately 2.29 rands for 93 octane unleaded petrol and 2.41 rands for 95 octane unleaded petrol.

If these trends persist until the end of the calculation period, the price of 95 octane unleaded petrol could reach around 29.33 rands per litre domestically, up from 26.92 rands in September. The price of 93 octane unleaded petrol would rise from about 26.76 to 29.05 rands. Coastal prices would remain slightly lower.

Diesel is also facing similar pressures. Estimates published on Tuesday suggest a potential increase of about 2.04 rands per litre for 500 ppm diesel and 2.41 rands for 50 ppm diesel. The wholesale price of 50 ppm diesel could thus exceed 32 rands per litre in inland areas.

These amounts do not yet represent the official October rates. The South African government reminds that the daily data from the Central Energy Fund are indicative and unaudited. The final price depends on the average international costs of petroleum products and the exchange rate over the entire review period. The next adjustment is set to take effect on October 7.

High oil prices and the rand intensify pressure

The increase is primarily driven by rising oil and refined product prices in international markets. Brent crude was trading above 100 dollars per barrel on Tuesday amid supply disruptions in the Middle East. Reuters also noted a weakening of the rand against the dollar, which exacerbates the cost of South Africa’s energy imports.

The South African currency had cushioned some of the shock at the beginning of the calculation period, but this effect has diminished with its recent depreciation. A sustained rise in fuel prices would also impact transportation costs and heighten inflationary risks in an economy heavily reliant on imported petroleum products.

Since September 2, the regulated price of 95 octane unleaded petrol has been set at 26.92 rands per litre in inland areas and 26.05 rands on the coast. The price of 93 octane unleaded petrol is 26.76 rands domestically, ahead of the next monthly adjustment scheduled for October.