Boom in biofuels could require an additional 36 million hectares

Global biofuel production is projected to surge by 68% between 2025 and 2030. If the newly announced targets are implemented, an additional 36 million hectares could be mobilized, raising concerns over food prices and forests.

This acceleration is a response to the oil supply shock caused by the conflict between the United States and Iran, along with disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Brazil, India, Indonesia, the United States, China, and the European Union have strengthened or are considering strengthening their blending mandates. Since the onset of the conflict, crude oil prices have risen by nearly 40%, while sugar and corn have increased by about 20%.

A study by Chatham House, conducted in collaboration with the Forest Stewardship Council, estimates that 32 million hectares were already being used to produce biofuel feedstocks in 2023. Expanded mandates could raise the total footprint to around 68 million hectares by 2030. The authors clarify that the additional 36 million hectares represent potential pressure on agricultural land, rather than a forecast of equivalent deforestation.

Competition with food is already evident. Approximately 40% of U.S. corn demand comes from ethanol production, while India has allocated an additional 5.2 million tons of rice to this fuel. This tension adds to the agricultural risks associated with the intensification of El Niño in Asia.

The report recommends reserving biofuels for sectors that are difficult to electrify and prioritizing waste, residues, and advanced fuels over food crops. It also calls for strengthening land use limits, supply chain traceability, and protections against deforestation.