Ethiopia: Five years after the embargo, Washington reopens arms licenses

Since September 18, American exporters can once again apply for defense licenses for the Ethiopian military, police, and security services. Washington has lifted the automatic denial established in 2021, although it has not authorized any specific arms sales.

The final rule from the State Department removes Ethiopia from paragraph 126.1(n) of the ITAR. It implements a decision made on February 5, 2026, replacing the presumption of denial with a case-by-case review of requests concerning defense articles and services.

This regulatory normalization ends nearly five years of specific restrictions. In May 2021, the United States imposed broad limitations on security assistance to Ethiopia during the Tigray war, later codifying in November a denial policy targeting the armed forces, police, intelligence, and other domestic security services.

The change comes as military relations have already begun to warm. At the end of July, US Africa Command and the Ethiopian military co-hosted a symposium in Addis Ababa with nearly 40 countries, and the head of AFRICOM met with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Chief of Staff Birhanu Jula.

From automatic denial to case-by-case review

The ITAR regulates American exports of military equipment, sensitive technologies, and defense services. While Ethiopia was included in the specific provision adopted in 2021, requests aimed at its main security forces were subject to a denial policy. The regulation that took effect on Friday removes this country-specific regulatory barrier.

However, it does not create an automatic right to purchase American equipment. A company wishing to export a controlled item must still submit a request when required by regulation, identify the end user, and obtain the necessary authorization. The Directorate of Defense Trade Controls can still accept, condition, or deny a license based on the submitted documentation.

The scope of the change is therefore precise. It reopens a commercial channel that had been virtually closed by principle, but it does not constitute a contract, funding, or delivery. The Federal Register text does not name any weapon systems, manufacturers, or amounts. It modifies how Washington will review potential future requests.

The timeline also indicates that the political decision did not originate on September 18. The Secretary of State had decided to end the denial policy on February 5. The Directorate of Defense Trade Controls had then indicated in May that Ethiopian requests would be reassessed individually. The September publication now aligns the regulatory text with this practice.

This distinction also applies to security assistance funded by the United States. The restrictions imposed during the Tigray war are not limited to the ITAR, and assistance programs remain subject to their own rules, particularly regarding security units when credible information exists about serious human rights violations.

The military rapprochement occurs in a tense context

The reopening of a defense channel with Washington is part of a broader resumption of contacts. During his visit in July, General Dagvin Anderson, commander of AFRICOM, met with Abiy Ahmed, Birhanu Jula, and the Ethiopian Minister of Defense. The symposium co-hosted with Ethiopian forces gathered over 200 military officials, logistics specialists, and communication experts.

However, the domestic and regional context remains unstable. On January 30, the African Union expressed concern over new developments in Tigray and urged the parties to uphold the permanent cessation of hostilities agreement signed in Pretoria on November 2, 2022. This agreement ended two years of open warfare without resolving all political and security tensions.

Relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara have also significantly deteriorated. In February, the Ethiopian government accused Eritrea of military aggression, territorial occupation, and supporting armed groups operating in Ethiopia, according to a diplomatic letter reviewed by Reuters. These accusations have heightened the risk of confrontation between the two former allies in the Tigray war.

Washington continues to describe a challenging security situation. In its travel advisory dated August 27, the State Department maintains Ethiopia at Level 3 and recommends against travel to Tigray or the border area with Eritrea due to the risk of armed conflict, unrest, and crime.

For Addis Ababa, the potential opening is not limited to the purchase of equipment. The ITAR also covers defense services and certain controlled technical activities, which may include training, maintenance, or specialized assistance according to the files. Each project, however, remains subject to applicable US authorization.

The rule published on September 18 took effect immediately. It does not validate any specific transfer to Addis Ababa and does not set any volume or timeline for purchases. The only confirmed change at this stage is the shift from a US policy of automatic denial to the individual review of future Ethiopian requests.