Central African Republic needs $12.8 billion for development plan as AfDB forecasts 2.9% growth in 2026

The African Development Bank (AfDB) released its 2026 country report on the Central African Republic on Tuesday, September 8, projecting a real growth rate of 2.9% in 2026 and 3.9% in 2027. The bank warns, however, that the recovery is still too fragile to meet social needs quickly or fund the country’s economic transformation.

According to the AfDB, the Central African economy grew by 3.3% in 2025, following growth rates of 1.8% in 2024 and 0.7% in 2023. This improvement was supported by the primary sector, particularly agriculture, forestry, and mining, as well as a rebound in investment.

Nevertheless, the report highlights several vulnerabilities. Public debt reached 59% of GDP in 2025, up from 58% the previous year, while the current account deficit stood at 7.4% of GDP. The outlook for 2026 depends heavily on security conditions, energy supplies and progress on infrastructure projects in transport, energy, and agro-industry.

The main challenge is securing funding for the National Development Plan for 2024-2028. The AfDB estimates the funding needs at $12.8 billion and urges Bangui to diversify its funding sources by drawing more funding from domestic savings, the diaspora, institutional investors, regional markets and private capital.

Recovery falls short of social needs

Presenting the report in Bangui on August 19, Central African Minister of Economy, Planning, and International Cooperation, Marc Mandaba, acknowledged that the recovery in 2025 was still too weak to meet demand for jobs and deliver lasting improvements in living standards.

In July, the World Bank highlighted structural weaknesses in the country’s public finances. It estimated that domestic revenues remained below 10% of GDP and that the wage bill consumed up to 73% of public resources, significantly reducing the state’s investment capacity.

Consequently, the AfDB recommends strengthening domestic revenue mobilization, enhancing public investment efficiency, and increasing private sector participation. It also emphasizes the use of guarantees, blended financing, local currency instruments, and risk-sharing mechanisms to make more projects financially viable.

Security, energy and infrastructure shape the outlook

The AfDB says security developments will remain critical in 2026 and 2027. The bank also says stronger growth depends on better energy supplies and the delivery of major infrastructure, transport and agro-industry projects.

Sustaining the recovery will depend largely on raising new funding and improving the management of public finances. The report further anticipates inflation that could exceed the regional target of 3%, while the public deficit is expected to be around 3.5% in 2026 and then 3% in 2027.