Canadian Oil: Asia Could Absorb 70% of Exports After Trans Mountain Expansion

Asia, led by China, could absorb 70% of Canadian crude oil exports following the planned expansion of the Trans Mountain network by the end of 2028, estimated its CEO Mark Maki on Tuesday, 8 September 2026. This projection accompanies a scheduled increase in capacity of the only major Canadian pipeline providing direct access to Asian markets from the Pacific coast.

The Trans Mountain network, which connects Alberta to British Columbia, currently has a capacity of about 890,000 barrels per day. It reached full capacity for the first time in June, while Canadian oil production is expected to surpass this year’s record of 5.3 million barrels per day set in 2025.

According to Mark Maki, an initial optimization will add about 90,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026, followed by an additional 210,000 barrels by the end of 2028. Altogether, these works would raise the system’s capacity to nearly 1.19 million barrels per day, roughly one-third more than today.

Currently, about two-thirds of vessels leaving the Westridge marine terminal in Burnaby are already headed to Asia. The Trans Mountain executive expects that most of the additional volumes will also find buyers on this continent, with China as the primary market and anticipated growth in purchases from India, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and Thailand.

This direction continues a diversification that began with the commissioning of the Trans Mountain expansion in May 2024. The Canada Energy Regulator estimates that the project has nearly tripled the network’s capacity to 890,000 barrels per day and significantly increased maritime export opportunities from Western Canada.

Canada Seeks More Markets Beyond the United States

Canadian oil has historically been heavily dependent on the U.S. market. According to federal data, over 95% of the country’s crude exports were still directed to the United States in 2024, even though the opening of new Pacific capacity has already increased the share going to other destinations.

The initial maritime flows from the expansion have mainly benefited China, but also Singapore and other markets. Additionally, the Canadian government announced in July a new pipeline project between Alberta and the Pacific coast, aimed at further increasing access capacity to global markets.

This strategy takes on added importance amid trade tensions with Washington and the search for new partners. Ottawa aims to reduce its vulnerability to a single outlet for its raw materials while increasing revenues from its energy exports.

Asian Demand Supported by Middle East Tensions

Asian demand for Canadian crude is also benefiting from disruptions affecting Middle Eastern supplies. Tensions surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz have heightened interest among some Asian buyers in alternative sources of supply.

The projection of 70% remains an estimate by the Trans Mountain executive and will depend on the completion of works, Asian demand, Canadian production, and global market conditions. Nevertheless, the rise of the Pacific corridor confirms that Canada now has a more significant export route to Asia than before 2024.