Madagascar: who is Colonel Michael Randrianirina, the country’s new strongman?

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The scene unfolded Tuesday afternoon in Antananarivo. Surrounded by his men, Colonel Michael Randrianirina, commander of the CAPSAT military unit, presented himself at the presidency to announce that the armed forces were taking control of the country. “Faced with the continued trampling of the Constitution and the squandering of the nation’s treasures, we are taking power”, he declared, thus sealing the end of the Rajoelina regime.

From a contested governor to a figure of resistance

This previously little-known figure quickly became the face of the uprising. It all began on Saturday 11 October, when he posted a video calling on security forces to refuse to fire on protesters. That defiant gesture, praised by part of the population, hastened the fall of a power already weakened by the protests.

Originally from Androy, in the arid south of the country, Michael Randrianirina cut his teeth leading the Tuléar infantry battalion before becoming governor of his native region between 2016 and 2018. His outspokenness and repeated criticism of Andry Rajoelina’s regime earned him prison. In November 2023 he was jailed at the Tsihafay detention center for “incitement to mutiny.” He was not released until February 2024, given a suspended sentence for “threatening state security.”

“I’m just a simple officer, an executor,” he said as recently as this weekend, before finding himself propelled to the top of the state. For him, the country’s situation left no other choice: “Nothing works in Madagascar: no president, no Senate, no government,” he told Radio France Internationale recently.

A power to legitimize before the international community

Although the High Constitutional Court has officially invited him to assume the functions of head of state, Colonel Randrianirina must now convince others of the legitimacy of his power. Talks began Tuesday evening with the judges to try to prove that this is not a coup d’état. A crucial issue, as the suspension of international funding would threaten the country’s already fragile economy.

The new strongman has promised the rapid formation of a civilian government and the holding of elections within 18 to 24 months. An ambitious roadmap in a political context poisoned by mistrust and repeated crises.

Since independence in 1960, Madagascar has been marked by military upheavals. From the fall of Philibert Tsiranana in 1972 to Andry Rajoelina’s seizure of power in 2009, every major political crisis has ended with military intervention. Colonel Randrianirina thus fits into a long line of soldiers who came to “restore order” and, often, remained in power.

It remains to be seen whether, this time, history will remember Michael Randrianirina as a savior or as another link in the chain of never-ending transitions.