Ebola in the DRC: the WHO aims to reverse the trend within three months.
The World Health Organization (WHO) hopes to reverse the progression of the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo within the next three months and to interrupt it within six months. However, the organization warns that the most unfavorable scenario could extend the crisis by nine to twelve months, especially due to the uneven spread of the virus in the affected areas.
SUMMARY
Gathered on Tuesday, August 12, the responders presented a six-month timeline, seen by the WHO as an intermediate scenario. The primary goal is to reduce the infection curve in the next three months before managing to halt transmission in the following three months.
The situation remains particularly fluid in Ituri, where the epidemic does not progress at the same rate across territories. In the central part of the province, in Bunia and Rwampara, the peak may not have been reached yet, according to Abdurahman Mahamud, director of emergency preparedness and response operations at WHO.
In Mongbwalu, where the outbreak emerged about five to seven months ago, indicators are starting to improve. The bed occupancy rate there is now estimated to be between 20% and 30%, according to the WHO official. However, this local decrease is not enough to stabilize the overall situation.
Bunia and the Greater Bunia at the Center of Concerns
For the WHO, controlling the outbreak in Bunia and the Greater Bunia is a key condition to prevent new waves of infection. As long as transmission remains active there, areas where the situation is improving could be at risk of resurgence of the epidemic.
The organization believes that the current epidemic is spreading faster than previous ones. It also emphasizes the crucial role of community adherence to prevention, screening, and care measures.
Abdurahman Mahamud recalled that a previous epidemic occurring in a context of insecurity lasted more than two years. The WHO intends to avoid a similar scenario, while security conditions and access to populations may complicate surveillance and response operations.
The six-month timeline thus remains a planning objective rather than a guaranteed deadline. According to the WHO, a deterioration of the situation could extend the duration of the epidemic to nine or twelve months. The organization claims to be working under the direction of the Congolese government to reduce this timeframe and interrupt transmission within the next six months.
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