Zambia: Hakainde Hichilema and Brian Mundubile are vying for a closely contested presidential election.

The campaign is entering its final stretch in Zambia. President Hakainde Hichilema, a candidate from the United Party for National Development (UPND), is defending his economic track record since taking office in 2021. His main rival, Brian Mundubile, is trying to leverage the discontent stemming from inflation and rising prices.

The presidential camp is notably highlighting the restructuring of public debt, which Hakainde Hichilema inherited from the previous administration. According to Bizek Jube Phiri, a political history professor at the University of Zambia, the government believes this operation is one of its key achievements.

Several analysts recognize that the policy implemented by the UPND has contributed to an improvement in macroeconomic stability. However, this evolution has not yet translated into a sufficiently noticeable decrease in the cost of living for a large part of the population. Inflation and purchasing power have thus become the central themes of the opposition’s campaign.

The management of mineral resources is another contentious issue. Copper is a crucial source of revenue for the Zambian state, which has adopted measures aimed at attracting more investments in the sector. However, economists criticize the government for granting too many benefits to investors, risking a reduction in public revenue.

An Opposition United Around Brian Mundubile

Brian Mundubile, a former member of parliament from the Patriotic Front (PF), represents a coalition that brings together several opposition parties. The PF, which led the country before its electoral defeat in 2021, has weakened since the departure of several of its leaders, especially following the political fall of its former leader and ex-president Edgar Lungu.

Some members and supporters of the Patriotic Front have joined this coalition, formed with other smaller parties around the National Reconciliation Party for Unity and Prosperity. This restructuring aims to unite forces opposed to the outgoing president and to prevent the dispersal of votes.

The election could go to a second round. According to Lee Habasonda, a political science professor at the University of Zambia, the opposition seeks to prevent Hakainde Hichilema from obtaining the absolute majority, set at 50% plus one vote. In this scenario, it could pose a serious threat to the ruling power.

The battle is expected to be particularly fierce in urban centers, where the opposition seems to have a stronger foothold. Conversely, it is less established in rural areas, a potential handicap in a country where rural voting could be decisive.

Concerns About Public Freedoms

The campaign is also marked by criticism concerning the evolution of public freedoms. Linda Kasonde, a lawyer and chair of the LCK Freedom Foundation, states that cybersecurity and cybercrime laws are being used to limit civic expression.

According to her, the government had promised to repeal laws adopted under previous administrations but replaced them with two new laws deemed equally restrictive by human rights organizations. Linda Kasonde believes these provisions have created a chilling effect, leading some citizens to avoid public expression for fear of prosecution.

She specifically mentions the case of Fred M’membe, a journalist and founder of the Zambian Socialist Party, who is currently being prosecuted for cybercrime. The charges against him and the outcome of the proceedings fall under Zambian judicial jurisdiction.

She also references incidents that occurred during opposition gatherings. She claims that supporters of the ruling party attempted to disperse crowds gathered at campaign sites through violence, stone-throwing, and injuries. These accusations have not been detailed in the available information and have not been established by a court ruling.

The two main candidates have called on their supporters to avoid violence and to respect the electoral process. The presidential election will take place simultaneously with the legislative elections, which will determine the composition of parliament and the next government’s ability to implement its agenda.