Zambia: 1.2 million people at risk of acute food insecurity by March 2027

More than 1.2 million people in Zambia are expected to face acute food insecurity between October 2026 and March 2027, according to the latest analysis from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC). On Friday, September 11, in Lusaka, the government also urged provincial administrations to activate their contingency plans in response to a forecasted drier and hotter rainy season for 2026-2027 in several regions.

The IPC estimates that approximately 698,000 people are currently in phase 3 or higher, classified as “crisis” or worse, between April and September 2026. This total is expected to surge by over 70% during the lean season, driven by a combination of climate shocks, rural poverty, agricultural pests, and macroeconomic pressures that are increasing the costs of fuel and fertilizers.

Cabinet Secretary Patrick Kangwa presented the national forecasts established by the Zambia Meteorological Department. The northern part of the country is expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall for part of the season, while the south is likely to experience below-normal precipitation.

The government identifies El Niño as the primary climate factor to monitor. Authorities have called for targeted measures in agriculture and food security, water resources, energy, health, and disaster management, with responses tailored to the specific risks of each province.

Anticipatory measures ahead of the agricultural season

Patrick Kangwa has instructed permanent secretaries and provincial administration officials to immediately implement their contingency plans. Farmers in the driest areas are particularly encouraged to prioritize short-cycle or more drought-resistant crops and to heed weather advisories before planting.

The food risk is particularly high for smallholder farmers. The World Food Programme estimates that Zambia has around two million small farmers, who are highly vulnerable to climate shocks due to their heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture.

Zambia is still reeling from the drought of 2023-2024, which is also linked to El Niño. This drought destroyed nearly one million hectares of maize out of approximately 2.2 million hectares planted and significantly reduced hydropower production, exacerbating electricity shortages in the country.

The Zambia Meteorological Department plans to update its bulletins throughout the season. The IPC, for its part, recommends a further review of the food situation by November 2026 to assess the actual impact of climatic conditions and other economic factors on the most vulnerable households.