Who is going to buy Niger’s uranium?

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Niger has just turned a page of its mining history. With the nationalization of Somaïr, hitherto pillar of uranium exploitation under French dominance via Orano (ex-Areva), Niamey shows its will to take control of its strategic resources. This choice, directed by the authorities from the military transition, marks a deliberate break with several decades of unequal relations where for too long, more than 60 % of Nigerien uranium production was heading to France, at the cost of a weakened national sovereignty.

However, Niger’s decision does not close the dispute with Orano, far from it. Two international arbitration procedures are underway, one on the withdrawal of the operating license for the Imouraren site, the other on the loss of control of Orano within Somaïr. All of this takes place against a backdrop of deep crisis between Niamey and Paris, since the 2023 coup that precipitated the departure of French troops and the closure of Tricolour representations in Niger.

But this recapture of sovereignty raises an essential question. Who will be the next customer for Nigerien uranium ? Despite persistent rumors of agreement with Iran – quickly denied by the authorities – the international situation, marked by the Israel-Iran war and enhanced American surveillance, closes the door to any direct sales project to Tehran.

China, already well established in the oil industry and present in uranium via Sino-U, stands out as a logical partner. Russia is not to be outdone, nor is Canada, thanks to Global Atomic which is developing a new project in Dosso with the support of American investors. Some European states, keen to secure their supply outside the French sphere, are also keeping a close eye on Niger. Finally, the emerging market for mini-nuclear power plants in Asia and the Middle East opens up new commercial perspectives.

So it’s safe to say that Niger is not short of outlets. The real challenge will therefore be to sell at a fair price while establishing more balanced partnerships than in the past. For a long time, a tonne of uranium was sold well below international market prices. The new authorities intend to put an end to this anomaly. Skills transfer is also another priority. For decades, maintenance and technical management of mines have been based on foreign experts. Now, the goal is to train a generation of Nigerien engineers and technicians capable of piloting the entire sector.

A tense geopolitical environment

Still, the international situation complicates matters. The United States closely monitors uranium flows, especially towards sensitive countries like Iran, while encouraging projects under Western control. As for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), it ensures traceability and non-proliferation by limiting the risk of diversions. Although France has withdrawn, the European Union and world powers remain attentive to securing their supply.

Thus, Niger enters a decisive phase of negotiation where it must guarantee its sovereignty, value its uranium at a competitive price, and consolidate a truly autonomous and sustainable mining sector. In this regard, the authorities aim to rebalance the shares distribution in mining companies, moving from a minority (36 % for Niger against 64 % for Orano) to more advantageous, or even majority, setups. But this change will take time as training, technology transfers and the conclusion of new contracts should span nearly a decade.

In this context, Niger must be able to benefit from a favorable global environment for uranium and turn this opportunity into a lever for development and regained sovereignty. But the success of this venture will ultimately depend on Niger’s ability to invest in its talents, its technologies, and its institutions, in order finally to take full benefit from its natural resources.